CLEVELAND — Northeast Ohioans have differing views on politics. But there’s broad agreement among the region’s voters when it comes to concerns over the rising costs of living, according to a new poll commissioned by Ideastream Public Media, WKYC and Signal Ohio.
Heading into the Nov. 5 election, 64% of these voters say they’re worried about the economy, with nearly 45% saying they’re “very” or “extremely” worried. More than half of respondents said the economy – more than every other possible topic combined – would be the most likely issue to shape their presidential vote.
Looking under the poll’s hood, relatively few voters said they’ve struggled to find work, a hallmark of the Great Recession of the late 2000s. But wide swaths ranked grocery affordability as the top issue facing their county, a result that spanned across political party, gender, age, education level and other demographic categories. Exceptions were urban residents, who identified housing affordability as their community’s top issue, and Black voters, who identified crime and public safety.
Wages aren’t keeping up with rising prices, said Michael Hug, an independent voter in Akron who participated in the poll.
“It's across the board where, you know, everything's ramping up and my salary is stagnant. So every month, I'm falling further behind,” Hug said.
Different issues ranked in second place depending on how the question was asked
Asked which issue would shape their presidential election vote, the second-most common response was reproductive rights, which was disproportionately important to Democrats, college-educated voters and women voters.
“I’m very concerned about, if the Republicans take office, that they're going to do away with all women's reproductive rights: the right to have an abortion, the right to fertility issues, even the right to birth control,” said Ashland voter Stephanie Jones.
Angel Pinard, an independent voter in Youngstown, said she also is concerned about reproductive rights. She wants her three daughters to have the right to an abortion and to be able to make their own healthcare decisions.
However, Pinard said, for her, the economy outranks reproductive rights.
“I’m a person who's very big on women's reproductive rights. So, of course, that's a big factor in where I stand politically. However, at the end of the day, I think it's more, I'm more concerned about the economy,” Pinard said.
When asked about the most important issue in their community, immigration pulled second place for Northeast Ohio voters overall, ranking just above public safety.
The poll was conducted by Baldwin Wallace University and Survey USA, an online polling firm. It surveyed 621 registered voters in 20 Northeast Ohio counties, most heavily from Cuyahoga, Stark and Summit counties, from Sept. 26-30.
The poll did not include questions about political races involving candidates. But it did find support for Issue 1, the constitutional amendment to change Ohio’s system of drawing its political maps, although, as we’ll explain later, polling ballot issues is notoriously tricky.
Affordability concerns Northeast Ohioans and poses a hurdle for tax levies
The survey repeatedly showed deep voter concern about the cost of living, including groceries, housing and healthcare. Here are some details:
28% of respondents said grocery affordability was their top issue, performing similarly among Democrats, Republicans and independent voters. A significant minority of all voters – 39% – said their household had struggled with food insecurity at some point in the past year. Voters with college degrees, meanwhile, were less likely than average to describe facing financial distress, with 30% saying their household had encountered food insecurity. But they were basically as likely as non-college-educated voters and other groups to identify grocery prices as their top local concern.
Voters were asked what factors explained a lack of affordable housing availability in their county. Their responses were overlapping. Sixty-nine percent chalked it up to rising rent and mortgage costs and 50% attributed it to higher property taxes. Forty-eight percent chalked it up to a lack of affordable housing. Forty-three percent described difficulty making their housing payments, including half of Black voters and nearly half of voters 49 or younger.
The poll suggests that pocketbook concerns could make a tough road for local governments seeking property tax levies this November, including measures in Cuyahoga County and Summit County. Nearly 51% of respondents, including 54% of those with college degrees and 53% of voters 50 and older – who are more likely than other groups to vote – said higher property tax assessments made it more likely that they would vote against local tax levies.
Immigration considered "major issue" by majority of voters
Immigration was the top local issue for a relatively small slice of voters – 14% – thanks in part to disproportionate responses from Republicans, who rank it higher than Democrats.
But nearly 70% of Northeast Ohio voters called illegal immigration a “major issue.” This helps explain why the topic has been such a major focus of political advertising in Ohio’s competitive congressional races, including the hotly contested race between Democratic U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown and Republican businessman Bernie Moreno.
The poll included a series of questions about illegal immigration. The results suggest negative community attitudes when it comes to undocumented immigrants, with a solid majority – more than 61% – calling them a “moderate” or “significant” threat to public safety. Fewer than 30% of respondents viewed them as a benefit to the economy.
And nearly half of respondents – including 25% of Democrats – said all undocumented immigrants should be deported.
The other half of Northeast Ohio voters favored a more moderate approach. Thirty-eight percent of respondents said they supported a path to citizenship, a solution favored by Democrats and some Republicans earlier this century. Another 11% favored some sort of temporary legal status.
Public safety concerns were also top of mind
Relatively high numbers of voters cited crime and public safety as a top concern.
But relatively low numbers shared having personally unsafe experiences.
Thirty percent of respondents said safety experiences had affected their households in the past year. Fifty-five percent of respondents said crime had been about the same where they lived for the past year, with only 30% saying things had gotten less safe.
Hug, the independent Akron voter, ranked crime as his top priority.
“There’s been a lot of gun violence in and around my neighborhood, so I'd like to see something done in that respect,” Hug said.
Locally, Hug would like better recruitment of police officers, but nationally, he wants more gun restrictions.
“I don't think that, you know, the government should come around, take everybody's guns away. That's not what I'm about. But I don't see a problem in, you know, having more enhanced background checks and such,” Hug said.
Black and urban residents were more likely to rank crime and safety as more significant concerns than other groups.
Twenty-seven percent of Black voters said public safety was their county’s most pressing issue, the most of any issue among that group.
And 43% of urban residents said their household had dealt with a safety-related issue in the past year, compared to 30% of all voters and 35% of Black voters.
Republicans and Democrats split over Issue 1
Voters were asked about Issue 1, which would change Ohio’s system of redistricting, or the process of drawing congressional and state legislative district maps. Right now, a panel of elected officials that’s controlled by the majority party, currently Republicans, is in charge of redistricting. Issue 1 would replace that panel with a citizens’ redistricting commission made up of equal parts Republicans, Democrats and political independents.None could be political office holders.
The poll found that nearly 49% of voters said they support Issue 1, while 21% said they opposed it and 30% were unsure. The results showed signs of political polarization – 63% Democrats said they support Issue 1, compared to a plurality of Republicans (37%) and independents (46%) who said they support it.
However, a significant number of Republicans (33%) and independents (39%) said they’re unsure how they’ll vote, compared to just 19% of Democrats.
It’s an open question whether these differences suggest Issue 1 has support across party lines or if voters simply don’t know enough about it yet. The state Republican Party is closely involved with the effort to defeat Issue 1, and the country’s most prominent Republican, former president Donald Trump, opposes it.
Dean Seigneur, a registered Republican from Northfield Center Township in Summit County, is unsure but leaning toward voting no, “even though there are good points to it,” he said.
“But, again, it can become a political ball just as much as it is under the present laws, Seigneur said. “I guess what I'm saying is, I don't think it’s going to make too much difference.”
Harvey Tucker, a registered Democrat in Chagrin Falls, is planning to vote yes – but acknowledged it’s not a perfect solution.
“Well, if I understand it correctly, and that's not easy, and [if] it is really intended to stop the gerrymandering in this state, then I certainly would support that,” Tucker said. “Now, whether this is really going to be able to do it or not, that remains to be seen, but almost anything is better than what we got now.”
Notably, the poll question also provided a detailed explanation of Issue 1 to respondents before asking them about it. But research has shown that when it comes to ballot issues, voters learn much of what they know based on what they read on the ballot at their polling place.
Because they control the state ballot board, Republicans wrote the Issue 1 ballot language in a way the measure’s supporters view as biased and likely to harm its chances of passing. The Ohio Supreme Court ruled the language appropriate.
So it’s not clear whether actual voters will have as much information about Issue 1 as poll respondents did.
This all factors into why ballot issues are notoriously difficult to poll.
Voters oppose certain transgender rights
Fights over transgender rights, particularly in schools, are a key facet of the culture war. Republican lawmakers earlier this year passed laws that restricted minors from receiving gender-affirming care and banned transgender girls and women from playing on school sports teams that match their gender identities. Republican lawmakers also are expected to pass before the end of the year a bill forbidding transgender Ohioans from using bathrooms that match their gender identity. .
Anti-transgender messaging also is a key focus of Republican congressional campaigns. The New York Times reported Wednesday that every ad aired by a top Republican Super PAC targeting Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown has touched on transgender topics.
The Baldwin Wallace poll found broad support among Northeast Ohio voters for the Republican position:
Seventy-four percent, including 58% of Democrats, oppose allowing transgender athletes to play on sports teams that match their gender identity.
Sixty-seven percent, including 48% of Democrats, oppose allowing transgender people to use public bathrooms that match their gender identities.
Sixty-seven percent, including 47% of Democrats, opposed allowing medical professionals to provide gender transition care to minors. Fewer than half of respondents, though, supported laws allowing the state to investigate parents of these minors for child abuse for helping them obtain such treatments.
