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Ohio experts weigh in on how the Donald Trump assassination attempt could impact the November election

Many are drawing parallels between the Trump attack and another former president who was shot during his comeback campaign.

CLEVELAND — The images of the assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump are burned in our memories.

"The first thing that I could think about was, 'Oh, this is going to have great implications,'" Brianna Mack, assistant professor of politics and government at Ohio Wesleyan University, told 3News.

David Cohen, professor of political Science at the University of Akron, also weighed in on the potential impact of the Trump attack on the upcoming November election.

"Is it possible that it'll have an impact on November? Absolutely," he said.

Although recent presidents have been targeted, you have to go back more than four decades to find the last sitting president to actually be shot. That was Ronald Reagan in 1981. Before him, Gerald Ford, Harry Truman, Franklin D. Roosevelt, and Andrew Jackson were all fired at — but not hit.

Four presidents have been assassinated while in office: Abraham Lincoln, James Garfield, William McKinley, and John F. Kennedy.

McKinley's killing in 1901 at the Pan-American Exposition in Buffalo, New York, was a landmark moment, leading Congress to specifically task the Secret Service with presidential security. Eventually, the USSS expanded to include former presidents, as well as candidates.

But since the start of the 20th century, three major presidential candidates before Trump were injured or killed in shootings during campaigns.

In 1912, former President Theodore Roosevelt was shot while seeking a return to office through a third-party nomination. In 1968, Senator Robert F. Kennedy was killed in Los Angeles after winning California's Democratic presidential primary. And in 1972, Alabama's segregationist Gov. George Wallace was paralyzed by a bullet during the Democratic primaries, derailing his presidential bid.

However, it's the attempted assassination of Theodore Roosevelt that is drawing parallels with the Trump attack.

As Republican gather in Milwaukee for their convention, in the heart of downtown is the Hyatt Regency Hotel. That's also the former site of the Gilpatrick Hotel, where in 1912 Roosevelt was shot in the chest during his comeback campaign for a third term in office.

The bullet traveled through his metal glasses case and his 50-page speech manuscript before becoming lodged in his chest, where the bullet remained for the rest of his life. The ex-president famously continued his speech despite being shot, telling the crowd, "It takes more than that to kill a bull moose." The line was in refence to the nickname of his outsider Progressive Party: the "Bull Moose Party."

So how will the Trump shooting impact the November election?

"I would argue that the Biden campaign will have a challenge," Mack answered, "because you can no longer attack Trump on his patriotism or commitment to the cause because he was shot at."

Cohen sees the shooting galvanizing Trump's supporters. 

"I think in the short term, the immediate short term, there's certainly going to be a small bump for President Trump in the polls," he said. "It's the 'rally around the flag' effect, and it happens in politics."

However, he added that the effect does not last long, on average lasting two to 2 1/2 months.

With the November election four months away, both Mack and Cohen said it's too soon to tell how the Trump shooting will impact the result. After all, despite a rally around Roosevelt in 1912, he ultimately lost to Woodrow Wilson.

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