CLEVELAND — With Ohio’s 2024 primary election behind us, we know Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown and Republican business person Bernie Moreno will be competing to try to win Ohio’s US Senate seat in the November general election.
THE QUESTION
That brings us to the question, Could the winner of Ohio’s Senate race determine the balance of power in the US Senate?
THE SOURCES
To VERIFY the answer to this question, we checked the following sources:
- USA.gov, the official website for the United States government
- Senate.gov, the official website for the United States Senate
- Nonprofit and nonpartisan online political encyclopedia Ballotpedia
- Independent, non-partisan political newsletter The Cook Political Report.
THE EXPLANATION
First, we need to know that every two years, one-third of the US Senate’s 100 seats are elected. These elections are staggered on purpose, according to USA.gov.
This year, 33 states will hold regular and special elections for 34 US Senate seats, as outlined by Ballotpedia. Because of a resignation, Nebraska is in the rare situation where both of its US Senate seats will be up for election in 2024.
Checking the official US Senate website shows that Democrats currently hold the majority in the Senate for the 118th Congress, with 48 Democrats, 49 Republicans and 3 Independents.
As The Cook Political Report explains, “The 3 independents caucus with the Democrats, giving Democrats a 51-49 seat majority.”
Of the 34 Senate seats up for election this year, only 11 of them are either currently held by Republicans, or were held by them before resignations. Only two of these seats are not considered completely safe for Republicans to hold on to.
On the other side of the aisle, 23 Senate seats up for election this year are either currently held by Democrats or Independents, or were held by them before resignations or death. Ten of these seats are not considered completely safe for Democrats to hold on to. One of those, in West Virgnia, is all but guaranteed to flip from Democrat to Republican, and Ohio’s Senate seat, which is currently held by Sherrod Brown, is listed as firmly in the toss up column. The Cook Political Report refers to a "toss up" as “the most competitive [race]; [where] either party has a good chance of winning.”
THE ANSWER
So we can VERIFY the answer to the question, Could the winner of Ohio’s Senate race determine the balance of power in the US Senate?, is yes.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
Ohio’s Senate race is considered one of the three most competitive Senate races in the country. With the Democrats currently holding only a 2-person majority over Republicans in the Senate, the winner of Ohio’s Senate race could absolutely shift that power balance in either direction.