CLEVELAND — After 107 games, it's time for us all to face facts: The Cleveland Guardians are honest-to-goodness contenders.
Not just for a postseason spot, but for the American League pennant, as well.
Now, you might be saying, "Well duh, Tyler. They have the best record in baseball! Why wouldn't they be contenders?"
Let's not kid ourselves, though: None of us (except for maybe the eternal optimist Stephanie Haney) thought the Guardians would be this good, and in true Cleveland fashion, we're all still sort of waiting for the other shoe to drop.
Anything can happen in this sport, and notice how I'm not declaring the Guards will win the pennant. Point is, they can.
It's time for us to go all-in and believe in this team.
You only have to look at this past week: Following a rough 8-14 stretch that had many questioning their long-term viability, the Guardians responded by winning six of eight, including a road series victory against the NL-best Philadelphia Phillies. Perhaps that rebound gave Cleveland's front office the final push it needed to go grab some reinforcements, swinging trades for outfielder Lane Thomas and starting pitcher Alex Cobb just before Tuesday's deadline.
To be clear, these moves are not "flashy," a far cry from the blockbuster Andrew Miller acquisition that propelled the Indians to Game 7 of the World Series in 2016. However, sometimes the most consequential deals are the ones that merely seal up cracks on an already solid roster, and Thomas and Cobb are more than capable of doing that.
Thomas made his Cleveland debut Tuesday in Detroit, playing right field and batting second. Overall, the Guards' offense has already taken a step forward following a disastrous 2023, placing in the upper half of all of MLB in OPS (.710) and OPS+ (100). They're also on pace for 181 home runs, well ahead of last year's anemic total of 124.
Yet other than Steven Kwan, the outfield has continued to be a weakness in the batting order, particularly in right field. According to Stathead, Guardians right fielders are batting just .212 (28th out of 30 teams in all of baseball at the position) with a .647 OPS (27th) and a 77 OPS+ (28th). The latter number means they are 23% worse than the relative league average.
Contrast those numbers to Thomas, who this season alone is slashing .253/.330/.405 with a dependable 113 OPS+. His career OPS+ is 110, and he also boasts a lifetime average of .306 against left-handed pitching.
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While his defense is a concern (nine defensive runs allowed in 2024), Thomas' bat is clearly an upgrade over guys like Will Brennan and Tyler Freeman. It could be the perfect supplement to a group that already has four regulars (Kwan, José Ramírez, Josh Naylor, David Fry) with an OPS+ of 122 or better.
What about the pitching staff? Well, that's where Cobb really needs to step up, because this year's Guardians rotation has been historically bad.
This season, opposing batters have posted a 115 OPS+ against Guards starting pitchers, which is 15% better than the relative league average against other rotations. Since the team was founded in 1901 as the Cleveland Blues, that mark is currently tied for the eighth-worst in team history, with the seven other squads all finishing with at least 86 losses.
Want more? No Cleveland team has ever made the postseason with a starting five allowing an OPS+ worse than 108, which came back in 2001 when the Indians lost to the Seattle Mariners in the ALDS. Additionally, since the establishment of the World Series in 1903, only the 1995 Colorado Rockies have made the playoffs with a more futile rotation, which gave up a 119 OPS+ to hitters that year.
And in case you're wondering: By this metric, the worst rotation to ever make the World Series was that of the 1982 Milwaukee Brewers, which surrendered an OPS+ of 109 during the regular season. Thirty-three years later, the 2015 Kansas City Royals would go on to win it all despite their rotation conceding an OPS+ of 107 to opposing batters, setting a new mark for championship starting pitching ineptitude.
OK, I admit, all of this isn't exactly reassuring. After all, I'm supposed to be making the case for the Guardians as pennant contenders. Let's talk about the positives.
Even with occasional inconsistencies, Tanner Bibee continues to develop into a potential future ace, with a 7-3 record and 2.77 ERA since May 13. Ben Lively has also been one of the biggest free-agent steals of the season, going 9-6 with a 3.44 ERA (119 ERA+) on a salary of just $750,000. And after missing more than half the year due to injury, wunderkind Gavin Williams is starting to shake off the rust, posting a 2.52 ERA over his last five outings.
And of course, we can't forget the bullpen, whose 2.47 ERA as a unit presently stands as the best mark the club has ever seen. Seems like that would help cancel out the shakiness of the starters.
All this is to say the Guardians didn't need to add a Corey Kluber-like arm to save the rotation. They just needed a steady presence to fortify the back end, and Cobb has the ability to fill that role.
A 12-year veteran, Cobb arrives in Cleveland with a career ERA of 3.85 and an ERA+ of 108, comfortably above league average. Last season, at age 35, he made his first All-Star team with a 3.87 ERA for the San Francisco Giants while averaging more than 5 1/3 innings per start.
By contrast, Guards starters not named Bibee, Lively, Williams, or Shane Bieber (remember his two magical outings?) are averaging just over 4 2/3 innings per start in 2024. Hitters have also tattooed Logan Allen to the tune of an .896 OPS (147 OPS+) and Carlos Carrasco at a clip of .849 (133).
The only problem with Cobb is that he has yet to pitch at the big league level in 2024, dealing with hip and arm issues since spring training. Still, the Guardians seem confident enough in his abilities to bring him aboard, and they expect he will join the rotation after no more than two more rehab starts.
If Cobb can return to at least some level of his normal form, then he (like Thomas in the outfield) would provide an immediate upgrade to the pitching staff. If free agent Matthew Boyd can continue to progress in his recovery from Tommy John surgery, or if either Allen or Triston McKenzie can somehow manage to be viable again, then perhaps the rotation can shake its current "historically bad" label.
I've been consistent for months in saying that the Guardians only needed to make a couple of "tweaks" to assert themselves as a force to be reckoned with. The foundation is already there with men like Ramírez, Bibee, and Emmanuel Clase, and now Thomas and Cobb can assist in filling the glaring holes. Rookies like Jhonkensy Noel and Kyle Manzardo are also capable of giving this team a boost.
Look, nothing is guaranteed in baseball. It's completely possible both Thomas and Cobb could bust or other players could regress into slumps. Personally, I don't even see Cleveland as the AL favorite, especially after how Baltimore improved its already loaded roster deadline.
Nonetheless, all you can do in this sport is give yourself a chance, and the Guardians have done just that. Plus, other contenders in the AL have their fair share of flaws, too, as any aggravated Yankees fan would tell you over the past month-plus.
Again, no one except Stephanie Haney thought we would be at this point, but here we are. October hopefully awaits, and everything the Guardians strive for is right there for the taking.