CLEVELAND — I took last week off due to the holiday, which gave me a chance to recharge my batteries and reassess one of the craziest seasons in NFL history. Plus, it allowed me more time to enjoy my 8-6 showing in Week 11, which brought my total for the season to 76-81-2.
Let's hope that momentum continues with my Week 13 picks.
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Chicago Bears (-3) vs. Detroit Lions
Pick: Lions +3
This seems like such an obvious bounce-back spot for a team that just fired its head coach that I wonder if it was baked into the line. Either way, I'll take Detroit to start its post-Matt Patricia era off with a win -- or at least a cover.
Miami Dolphins (-11.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Pick: Bengals +11.5
I still think there's more value than usual in taking the points with these big lines this season. Plus, assuming Tua plays, the Dolphins are less equipped to blow out their opponents than they are with Ryan Fitzpatrick in the lineup.
Houston Texans (+3.5) vs. Indianapolis Colts
Pick: Texans +3.5
The loss of Will Fuller V is an obvious hit to the Texans' firepower. Still, Deshaun Watson has been hitting his stride and possesses more than enough talent to cover a 3.5-point spread at home.
Minnesota Vikings (-10) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Pick: Jaguars +10
As a rule of thumb for the rest of the season, I may just take the points in any line of 10 or higher. That rings especially true when it involves an inconsistent Vikings team just two weeks removed from losing to the Cowboys.
New York Jets (+8) vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Pick: Jets +8
Even at their best, the Raiders aren't built to win blowouts. Plus, the Jets possess significantly more upside with Sam Darnold in the lineup.
Atlanta Falcons (+3) vs. New Orleans Saints
Pick: Falcons +3
The Falcons have played like a different team since firing Dan Quinn. And while they're just two weeks removed from a loss to the Saints in New Orleans, I'd be surprised if Taysom Hill found the same success on Sunday that he did the last time he faced Atlanta.
Tennessee Titans (-5.5) vs. Cleveland Browns
Pick Titans -5.5
Through no fault of their own, the Browns have largely gotten to 8-3 by beating up on bad teams. The Titans aren't that and it's tough for me to imagine a depleted Cleveland defense slowing down both Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown.
Seattle Seahawks (-10) vs. New York Giants
Pick: Giants +10
I'm sticking to my 10-points-or-more rule here and taking the underdog. As talented as Seattle has been this season, the Seahawks have also been relatively inconsistent.
Arizona Cardinals (-1) vs. Los Angeles Rams
Pick: Rams +1
Despite last week's letdown vs. the 49ers, I think the Rams are simply a better team than the Cardinals.
Green Bay Packers (-8.5) vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Pick: Packers -8.5
According to Football Outsiders' DVOA, the Packers are a top-five team, while the Eagles are a bottom-six team. Based on that discrepancy alone, a blowout feels very much in play.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. New England Patriots
Pick: Patriots
Bill Belichick vs. Anthony Lynn in a pick 'em? This might be my lock of the week.
Kansas City Chiefs (-14) vs. Denver Broncos
Pick: Chiefs -14
Remember my "always take 10 points or more" rule? That goes out the window when Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill are involved.
San Francisco 49ers (+1) vs. Buffalo Bills
Pick: Bills -1
It feels like the Bills aren't getting enough credit here for the season they've had. For as well-coached as San Francisco is, I don't think the 49ers still have the talent to beat contenders on a weekly basis.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-8.5) vs. Washington Football Team
Pick: Football Team +8.5
The Football Team has been quietly formidable this season, especially with Antonio Gibson hitting his stride. At the very least, Washington should have enough talent on both sides of the ball to cover an 8.5-point spread against a Steelers team coming off a week unlike any other in football history.