CLEVELAND — "All I do is win, win, win no matter what"
Thanks to a 10-5 showing in Week 4, I'm finally above .500 for the first time all season with a 32-30-1 record on the year. Let's keep the winning rolling with my Week 5 picks.
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Chicago Bears (+3.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pick: Buccaneers -3.5
Even with a banged-up receiving corps, "Tompa" Bay has more than enough talent to extend its winning streak to a fourth straight victory. With wins over the Lions, Giants and Falcons, the Bears aren't as impressive as their 3-1 record suggests.
Atlanta Falcons (-2) vs. Carolina Panthers
Pick: Panthers +2
Are we sure the right team is even favored? The Falcons are coming off a short week and will likely be without Julio Jones. Meanwhile, Carolina doesn't look like the rebuilding team many -- myself included -- thought it would be and quietly boasts one of the league's more talented rosters.
Kansas City Chiefs (-13) vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Pick: Chiefs -13
There are very few teams capable of keeping pace with the Chiefs. Even if Henry Ruggs III returns this week, the Raiders aren't one of them.
New England Patriots (-5) vs. Denver Broncos
Pick: Broncos +5
On paper, this game looks like a mismatch in several ways. But I can't bring myself to pick the Patriots by more than a field goal when they'll be playing this game without their starting quarterback and best defensive player.
Washington Football Team (+7) vs. Los Angeles Rams
Pick: Rams -7
Washington's problems this season have extended far beyond Dwayne Haskins. After a sluggish game against the Giants, I fully expect a Rams bounce back against one of the NFL's worst teams.
Houston Texans (-6) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Pick: Texans -6
The Texans have freed themselves of Bill O'Brien, while Jacksonville has confirmed its status as a tanking team. This seems like a classic spot where a team gets a boost after firing a head coach who had overstayed his welcome.
Tennessee Titans (+1) vs. Buffalo Bills
Pick: Bills -1
I don't think this game actually happens this week. But if it does, I want it on the record that I'm taking the Bills.
New York Jets (+7) vs. Arizona Cardinals
Pick: Jets +7
I haven't seen much from this Cardinals team lately to justify taking it as a 7-point favorite on the road -- even against the Jets.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-7) vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Pick: Eagles +7
Despite playing three of the league's worst teams (Giants, Broncos and Texans), the Steelers only have one win this season by double-digits. Even if they manage to beat the Eagles, it's hard to imagine them doing so in blowout fashion.
Baltimore Ravens (-13) vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Pick: Bengals +13
Through the first four weeks of his NFL career, Joe Burrow is undefeated against the spread. Baltimore will be his toughest test yet, but 13 points already feel like too many to bet against Burrow.
San Francisco 49ers (-9) vs. Miami Dolphins
Pick: Dolphins +9
Through their first four games of the season, the Dolphins have only lost by double-digits once. I expect that trend to continue against a 49ers team easing Jimmy Garoppolo back into its lineup.
Dallas Cowboys (-9.5) vs. New York Giants
Pick: Giants +9.5
Even without Saquon Barkley and Sterling Shephard, the Giants have the offensive weapons necessary to take advantage of the Cowboys' porous pass defense. I fully expect Dallas to win but New York to do enough to keep things close.
Cleveland Browns (+1.5) vs. Indianapolis Colts
Pick: Browns +1.5
I'm shocked I'm saying this, but I can't believe the Browns are an underdog. The Colts defense will present a much tougher challenge than Cleveland has seen throughout its current winning streak, but at this point, it's tough to bet against what Kevin Stefanski is building.
Seattle Seahawks (-7) vs. Minnesota Vikings
Pick: Seahawks -7
Kirk Cousins in primetime is an auto pick the other way. Let's go Seahawks!
New Orleans Saints (-7.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Pick: Chargers +7.5
I haven't seen enough from Drew Brees this season to justify picking him by more than a touchdown against a team with a defense as talented as the Chargers'. Regardless of who's playing quarterback for L.A., this feels like a potential outright upset.