CLEVELAND — Week 1 of the NFL season was a humbling one in Cleveland.
But enough about my picks.
After entering the season bragging about last year's winning record, I turned in a woeful 5-10-1 record in my Week 1 games, including an 0-3 mark in my best bets (as seen on WKYC's Chalk Talk).
Truth be told, I'm surprised I didn't do worse.
Nevertheless, I find myself fighting an uphill battle just one week into the 2019 season. Let's get back on track with my Week 2 picks:
All lines via Bovada:
Carolina Panthers (-7) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pick: Buccaneers +7
Jameis Winston has been up and down for most of his career and last week it was his two pick-6 interceptions that made the difference in Tampa Bay's 31-17 loss the 49ers. I'll take the Bucs and 7 points and hope I get the good version of Winston this week facing a Panthers team just four days removed from a physical loss against the Los Angeles Rams.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-4) vs. Seattle Seahawks
Pick: Seahawks +4
To paraphrase Bill Simmons, "are we sure the Steelers are good?" I know they were playing the Patriots, but to get blown 33-3 in their season opener was baffling. The Seahawks weren't overly impressive in their 21-20 victory over the Bengals, but at least they won. Perhaps I'll look back on this as an overreaction, but I'll take Seattle and the points until Pittsburgh can prove to me they're capable of playing like a contender.
Green Bay Packers (-3) vs. Minnesota Vikings
Pick: Vikings +3
Speaking of overreactions, for as much attention as the Bears' bad offense got in the Thursday Night opener last week, Green Bay's offense was almost just as bad. I'll take a Vikings team (and the points) that dominated what could wind up being a pretty good Falcons team to at the very least cover, if not win outright.
Miami Dolphins (+19.5) vs. New England Patriots
Pick: Dolphins +19.5
This line initially opened at 14 and has since ballooned by nearly six full points. I don't feel good about having to rely on anything related to a clearly tanking Dolphins team. But the Patriots have a history of having weird things happen to them in Miami, so I'll hold my breath and take South Beach plus the points.
Washington Redskins (+5.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys
Pick: Cowboys -5.5
Washington got off to a hot start behind Case Keenum, but proved such success wasn't sustainable for a whole game -- let alone an entire season. The Cowboys, meanwhile, spent much of the second half of their Week 1 victory vs. the Giants running out the clock and could be in a similar situation facing a Redskins team they should have a significant talent advantage over.
San Francisco 49ers (+2) vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Pick: 49ers +2
I liked the 49ers when this game was a pick 'em and like them even better when I'm getting two points. Andy Dalton has been up and down his whole career -- especially when he's been without A.J. Green -- and I wouldn't be surprised to see him follow last week's strong showing vs. the Seahawks with a let down at home.
Detroit Lions (+3) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Pick: Chargers -3
Anytime I'm facing a 3-point spread, I have a hard time taking the underdog unless I think it actually has a chance to win. Suffice to say, I don't feel that way about the Lions this week, facing a Chargers team that should have significant advantages in both talent and coaching.
Tennessee Titans (-3) vs. Indianapolis Colts
Pick: Colts +3
I'm not buying the Andrew Luck-less Colts as much as others seem to be, but this feels like a good spot for them facing the Titans, who are coming off a big win against the Browns in Week 1. This feels like the type of game that will be decided by a field goal and without a great feel for either team, I'll take the points.
Baltimore Ravens (-13) vs. Arizona Cardinals
Pick: Ravens -13
There are two ways to view the Cardinals' showing in Week 1, in which they came back to force overtime in an eventual tie vs. the Lions. One is that their resiliency was impressive. The other is that it's alarming they were trailing the Lions by 15 points at home in the first place. I'll stick with the latter and take Baltimore to win in its second blowout in as many weeks.
New York Giants (+1.5) vs. Buffalo Bills
Pick: Giants +1.5
To paraphrase myself paraphrasing Bill Simmons earlier in this very column, are we sure the Bills are good? Are we sure the Giants are bad? (I mean, yeah, probably).
Either way, the Giants being an underdog at home feels like an overreaction to the Bills winning a game against the Jets they could have very well lost. If the Jets hold on, are the Bills still favored? I'm dubious. Plus, this seems like the type of game where Saquon Barkley could just go off.
Houston Texans (-9) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Pick: Jaguars +9
The Jaguars were counting on a big upgrade going from Blake Bortles to Nick Foles, but so long as Gardner Minshew doesn't turn the ball over, Jacksonville's offense could still improve. With Houston coming off a short week -- and tough loss -- I think the Jaguars are talented enough to at least keep this game within a touchdown.
Oakland Raiders (+7.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Pick: Chiefs -7.5
The Raiders' win over the Broncos on Monday felt like it had way more to do with Denver than it did Oakland. The Raiders are coming off a short week, are at a significant talent disadvantage and may see their homefield advantage weakened by their impending move to Las Vegas. I'd take the Chiefs at any single-digit line.
Denver Broncos (+3) vs. Chicago Bears
Pick: Bears -3
Speaking of the Broncos, I'm going to need a lot more than just three points to consider betting on them, even at home. You would think picking the Bears last weak would have scarred me, but I'm not as down on Mitchell Trubisky as everyone else. If Chicago is going to have any chance to bounce back this season -- and I think it can -- it's going to need to start with a strong showing on Sunday.
Los Angeles Rams (-2.5) vs. New Orleans Saints
Pick: Rams -2.5
Despite walking away with a win, I thought the Saints showed a lot of red flags against the Texans on Monday. Conversely, I thought the Rams showed a lot to like in their own 3-point victory over the Panthers. If I had to answer which team I feel better about starting the season 2-0 as opposed to 1-1, I'd have to take the Rams.
Atlanta Falcons (+2) vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Pick: Eagles -2
The Eagles shook off a sluggish start vs. Washington and still walked away with a win in Week 1. The same, however, couldn't be said about the Falcons, who turned in one of the opening week's more disappointing showings. I don't want to overreact to such a small sample size, but both outcomes seemed to confirm what I thought about these two teams entering the season.
New York Jets (+3) vs. Cleveland Browns
Pick: Browns -3
I wouldn't feel great about this line if it gets much higher, but I suspect that won't be the case. In what marks the first "loser leaves town" match of the 2019 season, two teams that entered the year with hopes of significant improvement will battle to avoid a dreaded 0-2 start.
Truth be told, this is largely a gut pick, perhaps influenced by a bit of bias. But after buying the Browns hype to enter the season, I have no choice but to stick with them and feel comfortable doing so against a Jets team that seems to possess a lower ceiling this season.