CLEVELAND — "Sometimes you're flush and sometimes you're bust, and when you're up, it's never as good as it seems, and when you're down, you never think you'll be up again, but life goes on." - Fred Jung (Ray Liotta) in "Blow."
I felt good about last week, I really did. But bouncing back from a rough Week 1 with a strong Week 2, I got back to my losing ways, turning in a 6-9 record in my Week 3 picks.
But as Ray Liotta said, life goes on and there's still plenty of time for me to get back on track and turn in my second straight winning season.
After going 9-6 last week, my record for the 2019 NFL season now stands at 20-26-1. It's not ideal, but all I need is one big week to bounce back.
Let's get to my Week 4 picks:
All lines via Bovada:
Green Bay Packers (-5) vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Pick: Eagles +5
I'm not ready to give up on the Eagles yet and like them in this must-win spot in primetime, facing a Packers team that I don't think has been as impressive as their 3-0 record indicates.
Houston Texans (-4) vs. Carolina Panthers
Pick: Texans -4
Panthers quarterback Kyle Allen was impressive in his debut last week vs. the Cardinals but will face an upgrade in competition in Houston. The Texans are a missed field goal in New Orleans away from being 3-0 and have found no shortage of success on offense despite DeAndre Hopkins' slow start to the season.
Baltimore Ravens (-7) vs. Cleveland Browns
Pick: Browns +7
This isn't a must-win spot for the Browns, but it's close to it. After his play-calling problems vs. the Rams last week, Cleveland head coach Freddie Kitchens is going to have to pull out all the stops and Baker Mayfield is going to have to put forth his best outing of the season to prevent the Browns from dropping to 1-3 to start their highly anticipated 2019 campaign.
Detroit Lions (+7) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Pick: Chiefs -7
I don't care how many times they prove me wrong (OK, I do), I'm not buying into this Lions team. Especially not against a Kansas City Chiefs offense that should only look more explosive than usual (if that's even possible) playing inside of a dome.
Miami Dolphins (+16.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Pick: Chargers -16.5
The Dolphins are going to cover one of these massive spreads one of these weeks -- just not this one. Coming off of two straight losses, the Chargers should be plenty fired up and happen to find themselves facing the perfect opponent to take out their frustrations on.
Buffalo Bills (+7.5) vs. New England Patriots
Pick: Patriots -7.5
I'm guessing all of the public money will be on the Patriots and this one, which tempts me to go the other way -- but hey, sometimes the public is actually right. In a battle between two 3-0 teams, I just can't get past how inflated the Bills' record is thanks to wins over the Jets, Giants and Bengals. And while the same could be said of the Patriots, who have beaten the Steelers, Dolphins and Jets, I think New England's track record more than speaks for itself.
Indianapolis Colts (-7) vs. Oakland Raiders
Pick: Raiders +7
The Raiders are bad, but they don't strike me as a team that's going to be getting blown out -- as they did last week vs. the Vikings -- on a weekly basis. As for the Colts, this seems like it may finally be the week where oddsmakers began to overvalue they've found following Andrew Luck's retirement.
Atlanta Falcons (-4) vs. Tennessee Titans
Pick: Falcons -4
I'm tempted to take the up-and-down Titans coming off a long week of rest, but I'm not sure I can trust them in any sort of spot until Taylor Lewan is back in the lineup. Atlanta, meanwhile, has ridden its own rollercoaster this season and is in a good spot to bounce back from last week's loss to the Colts.
New York Giants (-3) vs. Washington Redskins
Pick: Giants -3
So long as Washington is committed to starting Case Keenum, I'm going to need more than 3 points to pick them in just about any game, let alone one that's on the road. Plus, I'd rather be too early than too late to the Daniel Jones hype train and think the Giants have enough offensive weapons (Evan Engram, Sterling Shepard, Wayne Gallman) to get past a bad Redskins team without Saquon Barkley.
Arizona Cardinals (+5.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks
Pick: Seahawks -5.5
It feels like the Seahawks are being punished for a relatively flukey loss to the Saints, in which they surrendered two non-offensive touchdowns. Statistically, however, Seattle is still one of the NFL's better teams, while Arizona -- despite the early excitement surrounding Kyler Murray -- could be one of the worst.
Los Angeles Rams (-10) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pick: Buccaneers +10
Through three weeks, Tampa Bay has quietly laid claim to one of the better defenses in the league and I think its offense still has the talent to potentially perform better than it has. I like this Rams team -- especially at home -- but I don't think lowly enough of the Bucs (at least not yet) to lay the 10 points.
Denver Broncos (-3) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Pick: Broncos -3
There's not much -- if anything -- to like about the Broncos through three weeks. But if their defense is ever going to play up to its potential, one would figure it might come against a rookie quarterback making the first road start of his NFL career.
Chicago Bears (-2) vs. Minnesota Vikings
Pick: Vikings +2
As much of the thought of Kirk Cousins vs. the Chicago defense scares me, I could make the same argument about Mitchell Trubisky facing Minnesota's defense. Considering the limitations of their respective quarterbacks, I still don't have a great feeling on either of these teams yet -- and likely never will. I'll take the Vikings and the points.
New Orleans Saints (+3) vs. Dallas Cowboys
Pick: Cowboys -3
I'm still not sold that Teddy Bridgewater can find long-term success for the Saints yet and feel like last week's win over the Seahawks may have said more about Seattle than it did New Orleans. The Cowboys, meanwhile, have been one of the best -- if not the best -- teams in the NFL so far and I don't see this being the spot where they are slowed down.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-4) vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Pick: Steelers -4
I hate how favorite-heavy I am this week and perhaps this is my way of subconsciously playing it safe after a losing week. Still, I'm not going to bet on this bad Bengals team just because I feel the need to throw a couple of more underdogs into the mix.