CLEVELAND — "A journey of a thousand miles must begin with a single step." - Lao Tzu
I didn't get back to my winning ways last week, but I did improve. Granted, after going 3-10 in my Week 9 picks, I didn't really have much room to go anywhere but up.
After going 5-7 in Week 10 picks, my record for the season now stands at a disappointing 65-75-1. As they say, Rome wasn't built in one NFL weekend, but let's nevertheless try to get back on track with my Week 11 picks.
All lines made available via Bovada
Cleveland Browns (-2.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Pick: Steelers +2.5
Winning cures all, but has also helped mask how close the Browns were to losing -- and not curing anything -- against the Bills on Sunday. Maybe Baker Mayfield's game-winning drive will instill some confidence in a Cleveland offense in desperate need of just, but until I see more evidence, I'll take a Steelers team that lays claim to a more experienced coaching staff and more complete defense.
Minnesota Vikings (-10.5) vs. Denver Broncos
Pick: Vikings -10.5
This could be a letdown spot for the Vikings -- at least as far as the point spread is concerned -- after last week's primetime win over the Cowboys. But truth be told, I'm not even sure who the Broncos' starting quarterback is right now, so I'll take Minnesota and lay the 10.5 points.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5.5) vs. New Orleans Saints
Pick: Buccaneers +5.5
I think the Saints bounce back after laying an egg vs. the Falcons last week, but Marshon Lattimore's hamstring injury could prove problematic going up against the best wide receiver duo in the league. Tampa Bay didn't cover as a home favorite against Arizona last week but possesses enough firepower to hang with New Orleans' enigmatic offense as an underdog.
Carolina Panthers (-6) vs. Atlanta Falcons
Pick: Panthers -6
No need to overreact to the Falcons' blowout win over the Saints -- we already know what we need to know about them. Carolina, meanwhile, desperately needs a win if it's going to keep pace in an ultra-competitive NFC Wild Card race and should pull out all the stops to make sure it accomplishes just that.
Miami Dolphins (+6) vs. Buffalo Bills
Pick: Dolphins +6
It's hard to fathom the Dolphins' winning streak reaching three games, but Miami only has to cover for me to be correct. And even before winning their last two games, the Dolphins were playing teams competitively enough that I wouldn't feel great picking the low-powered Bills offense to cover by six points on the road.
Baltimore Ravens (-4.5) vs. Houston Texans
Pick: Texans +4.5
The Ravens have blown out opponents in each of their past three games and while that would typically be a reason to pick them, I'm not sure that's sustainable. Meanwhile, the Texans should be well-rested and prepared coming off their bye, with the return of Will Fuller V providing a much-needed dynamic that had been missing in recent weeks.
Washington Redskins (-1) vs. New York Jets
Pick: Jets +1
In what essentially amounts to a pick 'em between two bad teams, I'll take the more talented roster and more experienced quarterback.
San Francisco 49ers (-11.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals
Pick: Cardinals +11.5
San Francisco should bounce back after its first loss of the season, but 11.5 points just seems like too much to lay against an Arizona offense that appears to have figured out how to best utilize Christian Kirk. If nothing else, this feels like a potential backdoor cover spot.
Oakland Raiders (-10) vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Pick: Bengals +10
The Raiders have been one of the NFL's more pleasant surprises this season, but I'm not ready to make them a 10-point favorite over anyone. That even rings true going up against the Bengals, whose offense could benefit from the return of John Ross III to the lineup this week.
Los Angeles Rams (-7) vs. Chicago Bears
Pick: Rams -7
I'm not ready to give up on the Rams just yet and Jared Goff is a totally different quarterback at home than he is on the road. Meanwhile, this seems like a potential letdown spot for Mitchell Trubisky, especially with the game being on national television.
Los Angeles Chargers (+4) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Pick: Chiefs -4
I've been sticking with the Chargers all season, but at some point, enough's enough. I'll take the Chiefs to put on an offensive showcase in Mexico City, Phillip Rivers and company limp into a much-needed bye.
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