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Ben Axelrod's Week 13 NFL Picks: Bears cover vs. Lions, Browns beat Steelers

WKYC's Ben Axelrod makes his picks against the spread for Week 13 of the 2019 NFL season.

"Yeah. I'm thinking I'm back" - John Wick (Keanu Reeves) in John Wick

After three straight losing weeks put me 12 games below .500, a season-best 11-3 showing in Week 12 breathed new life into my 2019 campaign. With that, my season total now stands at 80-84-1, putting me in great position to truly get back to my winning ways by season's end.

With that, let's keep the momentum rolling with my Week 13 picks:

All lines made available via Bovada

Detroit Lions (+4) vs. Chicago Bears

Pick: Bears -4

It looks like David Blough is going to be starting at quarterback for the Lions on Thanksgiving. If that name sounds familiar, it's because he was the Browns fourth-string quarterback during the preseason. Even with Detroit at home and Chicago's enigmatic offense, I'm going to need at least a touchdown to even thinking about backing a quarterback who has thus far proven to be nothing more than a practice arm.

Dallas Cowboys (-7) vs. Buffalo Bills

Pick: Bills +7

Amari Cooper doesn't look like he's 100% and even if he is, he'll have his hands full facing Tre'Davious White. Dallas has more than enough talent elsewhere to win this game, but even in its three defeats, Buffalo has hung close twice.

Atlanta Falcons (+7) vs. New Orleans Saints

Pick: Saints -7

This line is probably even lower than it should be based on the Falcons' beatdown of the Saints two weeks ago. Looking at the totality of the two team's resumes, however, it's clear that was an aberration, leaving me to believe New Orleans will even the season series with a blowout win.

Credit: AP
New Orleans Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas (13) celebrates his touchdown reception in the second half of an NFL football game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in New Orleans, Sunday, Oct. 6, 2019. (AP Photo/Bill Feig)

New York Giants (+7) vs. Green Bay Packers

Pick: Giants +7

The Giants haven't won a game since Week 4, but have remained within a touchdown of their opponents in four of the last five weeks. And while this feels like a likely bounce back spot for Green Bay, I don't think the Packers have been as impressive this season as their 8-3 record suggests.

Baltimore Ravens (-6) vs. San Francisco 49ers

Pick: 49ers +6

This is a total gambler's fallacy, but there's no way the Ravens keep blowing teams out at the rate they have been, right? And if there's one team capable of containing -- or at least limiting -- Lamar Jackson, it just might be the 49ers.

Miami Dolphins (+10) vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Pick: Dolphins +10

Betting on the Dolphins as they revert back to their tanking ways seems like a fool's errand. But on the other hand, if I'm going to cover a 10-point spread, I'm going to need a high powered offense on my side and as of late, the Eagles have been anything but that.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5) vs. Cleveland Browns

Pick: Browns -2.5

While it was the fight at the end of the Week 11 matchup between these two teams that grabbed all the headlines, something (else) that really struck me about that night was how much trouble the Steelers had moving the ball. That trend continued in last week's win over the Bengals and is quite the contrast from a Browns offense that is suddenly hitting its stride.

Credit: David Richard/AP
Cleveland Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) looks to pass in the first quarter of a game against the Miami Dolphins at FirstEnergy Stadium in Cleveland on Sunday, November 24, 2019.

Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) vs. Tennessee Titans

Pick: Titans +2.5

I liked this line better when the Titans were getting three points, but that still won't sway me from taking 2.5. Tennessee has quietly been one of the NFL's most consistent teams since inserting Ryan Tannehill at quarterback and should keep things close with the Colts, if not win outright.

Carolina Panthers (-10) vs. Washington Redskins

Pick: Panthers -10

Even as their playoff hopes have slipped away, the Panthers have still proven to possess one of the NFL's most potent offenses. Washington, meanwhile, is anything but dangerous and should falter with Dwayne Haskins making just his second road start.

Cincinnati Bengals (+3.5) vs. New York Jets

Pick: Jets -3.5

Don't look now, but the Jets have won three straight and lay claim to a schedule that could sneak them back into the AFC Wild Card hunt. What's more is Sam Darnold has been impressive while taking advantage of one of the AFC's most underrated collection of skill players.

Credit: AP
El quarterback de los Jets de Nueva York Sam Darnold lanza un pase en la primera mitad del juego de pretemporada ante los Giants de Nueva York, el jueves 8 de agosto de 2019, en East Rutherford, Nueva Jersey. (AP Foto/Michael Owens)

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Pick: Buccaneers

This is a pick 'em. I think the Bucs are the better team. So I'm going to pick 'em.

Arizona Cardinals (+3) vs. Los Angeles Rams

Pick: Rams -3

This line feels disrespectful to the Rams, whose losses this season have largely come against good teams. And while Kyler Murray has been impressive in his rookie campaign, I'm not ready to say the 3-7-1 Cardinals qualify as just that.

Denver Broncos (+3) vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Pick: Broncos +3

Are we sure the right team is favored here? Nothing I've seen from this Chargers team this season can help me justify picking them as a road favorite -- even against the Brandon Allen-led Broncos.

Kansas City Chiefs (-10) vs. Oakland Raiders

Pick: Chiefs -10

I don't think the Raiders are as bad as they played against the Jets last week, but I also don't think they're as good as they appeared to be earlier in the season. Meanwhile, the Chiefs should be well-rested (and healthy) coming off their bye and could be in line to hand the Raiders their second straight blowout loss.

Credit: AP
El quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) de los Chiefs de Kansas City lanza un pase al running back Damien Williams durante la primera mitad de un partido de pretemporada, el sábado 24 de agosto de 2019, en Kansas City, Missouri.(AP Foto/Charlie Riedel)

Houston Texans (+3.5) vs. New England Patriots

Pick: Patriots -3.5

Bill Belichick vs. Bill O'Brien in primetime? And I only have to cover 3.5 points? The only thing that gives me hesitation to this pick is that it seems entirely too obvious.

Seattle Seahawks (-3) vs. Minnesota Vikings

Pick: Seahawks -3

I think the Seahawks have been the best team in the NFL this season that very few seem to be talking about. Plus, while he's changed the narrative about himself some this season, I don't think you can go wrong picking against Kirk Cousins in primetime.

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