“You find out life's this game of inches. So is football. Because in either game, life or football, the margin for error is so small — I mean one-half a step too late, or too early, and you don't quite make it. One-half second too slow, too fast, you don't quite catch it.” - Tony D'Amato (Al Pacino) in Any Given Sunday.
I was feeling pretty good early about my Week 8 picks before a mid-afternoon slump brought me back to Earth. Nevertheless, I still (just barely) walked away with a winning week at 7-6, bringing me one step -- or inch -- closer to .500 on the season, with my total for the year now sitting at 57-58-1.
Let's try to get over the hump with my Week 9 picks:
Arizona Cardinals (+10.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers
Pick: 49ers -10.5
It's tough to lay this many points with the road team on a Thursday night, but the 49ers are on a roll and I don't see this being the spot where they slow down.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+1.5) vs. Houston Texans
Pick: Texans -1.5
While the Jaguars have been impressive, the Texans have an overwhelming talent advantage. And any time you can take the more talented team while laying less than a field goal -- in London, no less -- it's tough to go the other way.
Philadelphia Eagles (-5) vs. Chicago Bears
Pick: Bears +5
Even after getting back on track vs. the Bills last week, I'm not sure this Eagles team deserves to be favored by more than a field goal against any team not named the Dolphins, Bengals or Redskins. At 3-4, this is essentially a do or die spot for the Bears, who at the very least should make this a competitive game.
Steelers (+1) vs. Colts
Pick: Colts -1
I'm not as enamored with the Colts as everyone else seems to be, but I think they're clearly a better team than the Steelers. In what essentially amounts to a pick 'em, I'll take them to win outright with Pittsburgh coming off a short week.
Buffalo Bills (-9.5) vs. Washington Redskins
Pick: Redskins +9.5
As they showed vs. the Dolphins two weeks ago, this Bills team simply doesn't have the blowout gene. And as Washington showed vs. Minnesota last week, at the very least, it's capable of covering a big spread.
Carolina Panthers (-4) vs. Tennessee Titans
Pick: Panthers -4
The Titans, as usual, feel destined for 8-8, so it only feels fitting to pick against them coming off a win. Meanwhile, I like this as a bounce-back spot for the Panthers after last week's blowout loss to the 49ers.
Miami Dolphins (+3) vs. New York Jets
Pick: Jets -3
This Dolphins team plays hard, but even at home and against a fairly bad team, it's tough for me to pick them when I'm only getting three points.
Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pick: Buccaneers +6.5
This just seems like too many points to lay against a Bucs team that while up and down, has shown it has the offensive firepower to hang with almost anyone on a weekly basis.
Oakland Raiders (-2) vs. Detroit Lions
Pick: Lions +2
After their impressive start to the season, the Lions find themselves in a near must-win spot if they're going to keep pace in the competitive NFC Wild Card race. I'll pick them -- and begrudgingly, Matt Patricia -- to do just that against a Raiders team who hasn't been as impressive as I think it's getting credit for.
Los Angeles Chargers (+4) vs. Green Bay Packers
Pick: Packers -4
I think the Packers are head and shoulders better than the Chargers, but this line doesn't necessarily reflect that. As a result, I'll lay the four with Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay.
Denver Broncos (+3.5) vs. Cleveland Browns
Pick: Browns -3.5
I liked this line a lot better at Browns -3 (and especially at Browns +1.5) and truth be told there's nothing I've seen this season that makes me feel good about picking Cleveland as a favorite on the road. Nevertheless, the Browns are in a must-win spot and I'll ride with that desperation over the Broncos, whose quarterback's name, I think, is Brandon Allen.
Baltimore Ravens (+4) vs. New England Patriots
Pick: Patriots -4
If there's one defense that I think can make Lamar Jackson one-dimensional, it's the Patriots. This feels like a classic New England Sunday night blowout spot.
New York Giants (+7) vs. Dallas Cowboys
Pick: Giants +7
Is Danny Dimes back? We'll find out on Monday night. Either way, with Saquon Barkley back at full strength, I think the Giants have enough firepower to hang at home with a Cowboys team that's been up and down for most of this season.