CLEVELAND — By the time kickoff rolls around at Heinz Field on Monday night, the Cleveland Browns will know whether they control their own destiny to win the AFC North, if they've been eliminated altogether, or something in between.
The Browns will have their eyes glued to the game between Cincinnati and Kansas City, where a Bengals win would end their divisional hopes but a Chiefs win would inch the Browns closer to the playoffs. After that game concludes, Cleveland's eyes will shift to the 4:25 p.m. contest between the Baltimore Ravens and Los Angeles Rams, where a Ravens loss – while not completely necessary this week for playoff hopes – would give the Browns the chance to be in the AFC North driver's seat when Week 18 rolls around.
Simply put, if Kansas City and Los Angeles win on Sunday, the Browns enter their Monday Night Football showdown in Pittsburgh knowing that a pair of wins to close out the season would give them the AFC North crown.
Assuming is always a dangerous game, but for the sake of this piece, that's exactly what's going to happen, so here we go.
Assuming wins by KC and LA, here are three keys for the Browns to beat Pittsburgh and set up a winner-take-all AFC North championship game between the Browns and Bengals next Sunday at FirstEnergy Stadium:
Take advantage of mistakes
In Pittsburgh's seven wins this season, quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has turned the ball over a total of just two times, both of which have been lost fumbles. In the seven losses he's started this year (he missed a tie against Detroit on the reserve/COVID-19 list), he has committed 11 turnovers, including eight interceptions. Forcing him into a mistake and then taking advantage of that miscue is an absolute must if the Browns are going to win this game.
In the first matchup against Cleveland, Roethlisberger played mistake-free football, and the Browns got him down for just a pair of sacks. The defense, led by Myles Garrett, needs to ensure Roethlisberger feels pressure more often than not and allow the secondary to capitalize on it. The Browns should have their full complement of corners back in the lineup, as rookie Greg Newsome II could return from concussion protocols.
The first time Browns corner Denzel Ward played against Roethlisberger, he intercepted him twice. This is potentially the last time he'll ever play against the Steelers quarterback, and sending him out with another interception would go a long way towards ensuring a Cleveland victory.
Run the ball effectively
The Browns found their mojo on the ground last weekend in Green Bay to the tune of 219 yards. It was the first time they had eclipsed the 200-yard mark since Week 5, when they lost to the Los Angeles Chargers 47-42 and was also the first time they had rushed for 150 yards or more since the Week 11 win over Detroit. Considering where Pittsburgh's rushing defense is currently at, this should be another week the Browns are able to control the game with Nick Chubb and potentially Kareem Hunt.
When the Steelers visited Cleveland way back in Week 8, they were a team that was coming off of a bye week and allowing just 107.6 yards per game on the ground. That's a number that would currently rank 12th amongst defenses across the NFL. The Browns rushed for just 96 yards in a 15-10 loss at FirstEnergy Stadium.
But from Week 9 on, the Steelers have allowed 174.8 yards per game on the ground, a number that would be by far the worst mark in the NFL if it were for the full season. Adding the first half and the second half together, the team has equaled a defense that has allowed 142.7 yards per game on the ground this season, still dead last in the league.
The 4.8 yards per carry is tied with the Packers for the worst mark in the league, too. After seeing what the Browns were able to do last week in Green Bay on the ground, this week should be no different for Chubb, Hunt, or whoever else may see time at running back.
Keep the foot on the gas
In the last five games, Pittsburgh has been outscored 97-9 in first halves, which coincides with when the Browns have been good offensively this year. The flip side to that is that the Browns have struggled to close games out and the Steelers have been a better team in the second halves of games.
The Browns cannot allow another fourth-quarter comeback in this one, as they did when Pittsburgh visited Cleveland earlier this year. Leaning on the running game to finish this one out should be much more doable against a now-atrocious Steelers run defense. Cleveland is a team that is built to put away games late – despite failing to do so for much of this season – and this week is a prime-time opportunity for the Browns to put an end to not only their late-game failures, but also what could be the final faint playoff hopes for Roethlisberger.