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Ben Axelrod analysis: Baker Mayfield needs to finish strong for Cleveland Browns to avoid offseason quarterback controversy

Cleveland Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield has at least two games left to avoid a quarterback controversy in the offseason.

CLEVELAND — Looking ahead to the 2022 NFL season, the Cleveland Browns' starting quarterback situation should be simple. Having picked up his fifth-year option earlier this year, Baker Mayfield remains under contract in Cleveland through the 2022 season with a guaranteed salary of $18.9 million.

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But with two games remaining in the 2021 campaign, the Browns' quarterback situation appears to be anything but simple. Having endured an injury-plagued fourth season in Cleveland, Mayfield has thus far failed to live up to the considerable expectations that followed his strong second half in 2020. 

Appearing in 13 of the Browns' 15 games, the No. 1 pick of the 2018 NFL Draft has completed 62.4 percent of his passes for 2,825 yards, 15 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, with Cleveland currently sitting in last place of the AFC North at 7-8. The disappointing nature of Mayfield's 2021 campaign was only amplified on Saturday when he threw four interceptions in the Browns' 24-22 Christmas Day loss to the Green Bay Packers. 

The advanced analytics have been even less kind to Mayfield's 2021 season, as he ranks 25th in QBR, 25th in quarterback rating, 22nd in EPA + CPOE composite and 17th in DVOA.

There's no doubting that injuries have negatively impacted the 26-year-old signal-caller's performance, as he's spent most of the season playing in a brace due to a torn labrum in his left shoulder -- an injury that will require offseason surgery. But the disappointing results stand nonetheless.

Be it injuries or illness -- Mayfield missed Cleveland's Week 15 loss to the Las Vegas Raiders due to COVID-19 -- it appears the Browns will enter the offseason without a firm grasp of their starting quarterback's value, making a long-term extension unlikely. As a result, Cleveland may have no choice but to consider its alternatives with Mayfield only having one season remaining on his rookie contract.

That doesn't necessarily mean parting ways with Mayfield -- although that might not be off the table, either. While his recent play and guaranteed salary might make him an unappealing trade candidate, recent deals involving Sam Darnold, Jared Goff and Carson Wentz show that it's not impossible.

At a minimum, however, the Browns will need to decide whether they can afford to enter the 2022 campaign with Mayfield as their starting quarterback without another viable alternative on their roster. Whether it be via the draft, a trade or free agency, Cleveland could find itself in the market for a high profile quarterback -- be it a new starter or backup -- for the first time since drafting Mayfield four years ago.

Who could be available? Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson have each already been rumored to be on the move in the upcoming offseason, while it's not crazy to think that Kirk Cousins, David Carr and Jimmy Garoppolo could also be attainable. Marcus Mariota and Mitchell Trubisky are former starters-turned-backups who could become viable alternatives to at least push Mayfield for his starting spot.

Either way, there will be quarterbacks available.

Of course, there's another option on the table and that's Mayfield spending the next two weeks -- and perhaps, beyond -- turning his 2021 season around. While Cleveland is in last place, it remains alive in the AFC North, with a realistic path to winning its first division title since 1989.

Any hopes of the Browns making the playoffs for a second straight season, however, will require them to win a road game against the Pittsburgh Steelers and beat the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 18. In order to do both, they'll likely need their quarterback to be at his best, something he hasn't been for most of the 2021 campaign.

But if Mayfield can help lead Cleveland to the playoffs for a second straight season, perhaps the most likely quarterback movement this offseason would be the Browns inking the Oklahoma product to a long-term extension. Either way, Cleveland's quarterback situation will possess plenty of intrigue for not just the next two weeks, but the months that follow.

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