CLEVELAND — The Cleveland Browns have a big game this weekend on the road in New England against the Patriots in Week 10, but the week is already off to a promising start, as far as scoreboard watching is concerned as the Baltimore Ravens lost to the Miami Dolphins on Thursday Night Football.
The Browns now have a 55 percent chance to make the playoffs this year, according to FiveThirtyEight. That 55 percent likelihood is a big step up from the 33 percent chance that the Browns had prior to the start of Week 9. Cleveland’s win over Cincinnati last week boosted the playoff chances up to an even 50 percent, meaning the Baltimore loss on Thursday night swung the needle for the Browns a full five percent.
Before kickoff this week, the Browns sit at 5-4 on the season, and in third place in the brutally difficult AFC North division. Even with the current positioning, by the end of the week, the Browns could be in the better shape than anyone else in the division, according to the analytics website.
A Cleveland win this weekend over the Patriots would boost its playoff odds to 73 percent, and would give the Browns a 37 percent chance to win the AFC North. Both numbers are the best in the entire division*.
(*Note: the above scenario is assuming that the Pittsburgh Steelers beat the Detroit Lions as well. An unlikely Pittsburgh loss to the Lions would boost Cleveland’s odds to 76 percent to make the playoffs and 43 percent to win the division.)
While these percentages are ultimately just projections, Thursday night’s Baltimore loss now sets up the AFC North to potentially be decided between Weeks 12 and 14. The Browns take on the Ravens in both those weeks, with their bye week sandwiched in between. The Ravens will square off with the Steelers in between matchups with the Browns.
Simulating only games featuring AFC North teams through Week 14 gives the Browns as high as a 99 percent chance to make the playoffs and a 98 percent chance to win the division after Week 14, although that situation would mean Baltimore beats Pittsburgh in Week 13, Cincinnati beats Pittsburgh in Week 12, and Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and Baltimore lose every other game they play between now and then.
Sunday’s test against the Patriots will be difficult enough for the Browns, but a win would put them in the driver’s seat in the playoff race before back-to-back showdowns with the Ravens that may ultimately decide the divisional crown.
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