CLEVELAND — “Winning isn’t everything, it’s the only thing.” - Vince Lombardi
After enduring a midseason slump, I've bounced back to put together two consecutive winning weeks, including a season-best 9-5 run in Week 13. That brings my record for the season to 85-86-2. Let's make the jump over the .500 mark with my Week 14 picks.
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Los Angeles Rams (-4.5) vs. New England Patriots
Pick: Rams -4.5
New England's recent resurgence has largely been the result of facing overvalued opponents. Ranking sixth overall in Football Outsiders' DVOA rankings, the Rams are anything but that.
Detroit Lions (+7.5) vs. Green Bay Packers
Pick: Packers -7.5
As I predicted, the Lions got a nice post-Matt Patricia bump last week, but now they have to play the Packers. And unless Detroit has an answer for Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams, a Green Bay blowout is the likeliest outcome.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+7.5) vs. Tennessee Titans
Pick: Titans -7.5
The Jaguars may have played hard with Mike Glennon in the lineup, but that's yet to result in a victory. Meanwhile, Tennessee is in a clear bounce-back spot after last week's loss to the Browns.
Cincinnati Bengals (+3.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys
Pick: Cowboys -3.5
Truthfully, I don't have much to justify this pick. But I'll be darned if I find myself sitting on the wrong end of a potential Andy Dalton revenge game.
New York Giants (+1.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals
Pick: Cardinals -1.5
The Giants' defense has been receiving a lot of buzz over the course of the past week and deservedly so. But even if James Bradberry negates DeAndre Hopkins, it's hard to imagine New York keeping pace with Kyler Murray and Co.
Chicago Bears (+1.5) vs. Houston Texans
Pick: Texans -1.5
In a battle between two evenly matched teams, I'll take the one with the better quarterback, who just so happens to have extra incentive to beat the team that passed on him three years ago.
Carolina Panthers (-3.5) vs. Denver Broncos
Pick: Panthers -3.5
Even if it's playing with a real quarterback, there's not a lot to like about this Broncos team. I'll count on the well-coached Panthers looking sharp -- and healthy -- coming off their bye week.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings
Pick: Buccaneers -6.5
Dalvin Cook was already banged up and that was before tallying a season-high 38 touches last week. Meanwhile, the Bucs are coming off their bye and should have had plenty of time to work the kinks out of a two-game losing streak.
Miami Dolphins (+7) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Pick: Dolphins +7
You hold your breath anytime you pick against Patrick Mahomes -- especially while getting less than double-digit points. But the strength of the Dolphins' defense is in its secondary and Tua should be able to move the ball on Kansas City.
Las Vegas Raiders (+2.5) vs. Indianapolis Colts
Pick: Colts -2.5
Simply put, 2.5 points aren't enough for me to pick against a Colts team I view as significantly better than the Raiders.
Seattle Seahawks (-13.5) vs. New York Jets
Pick: Jets +13.5
There's been a lot of value this season in just taking the points with these bigger lines. Plus, the Jets seem to keep tempting their inevitable fate of screwing up their quest for Trevor Lawrence.
Los Angeles Chargers (+2.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons
Pick: Falcons -2.5
Despite their abundance of talent, the Chargers rank 30th in overall DVOA. Plus, last week's blowout loss to the Patriots seems to have put their season into a tailspin, with it only being a matter of time until Anthony Lynn gets the pink slip.
Philadelphia Eagles (+6.5) vs. New Orleans Saints
Pick: Saints -6.5
If Jalen Hurts was the solution to the Eagles' woes, he would have been playing much sooner.
San Francisco 49ers (-3) vs. Washington Football Team
Pick: Football Team +3
The Football Team's defensive line is the real deal. And even if Antonio Gibson doesn't play, Washington still possesses enough overall talent to not only cover, but win this game outright.
Buffalo Bills (-2.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Pick: Steelers +2.5
No longer having to worry about the pressure of going undefeated, I think Pittsburgh will play with more freedom. Plus, the Steelers possess the type of defense that can take advantage of turnover prone Josh Allen.
Cleveland Browns (+1) vs. Baltimore Ravens
Pick: Browns +1
DVOA favors the Ravens, but this Baltimore team doesn't pass the sniff test for me. In what marks one of the most highly anticipated games in the history of FirstEnergy Stadium, I expect Cleveland to make a statement.