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Ben Axelrod's Week 16 NFL Picks: Texans beat Buccaneers, Browns cover vs. Ravens

WKYC's Ben Axelrod makes his picks against the spread for Week 16 of the 2019 NFL season.

“When you win, say nothing, when you lose, say less.” - Paul Brown

Taking a page out of Coach Brown's playbook, I'm going to keep this quick. I went 10-6 in my Week 15 picks, which marks my third winning week in the past four weeks. In that span, I've amassed a 38-20-3 record, with my season total now sitting at 107-101-4.

Was that too much? Either way, let's keep the momentum rolling with my Week 16 picks:

All lines made available via Bovada

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) vs. Houston Texans

Pick: Texans -3

I've liked this Tampa Bay team more than most this season, but losing Mike Evans and Chris Godwin is just too big of a blow. I'll take the Texans to build on last week's big win over Tennessee, especially with Will Fuller back on the field for Houston.

New England Patriots (-6.5) vs. Buffalo Bills

Pick: Bills +6.5

Even against Cincinnati, it was clear that something isn't right with this New England offense and I don't think facing the Bills on the road will change that. I think the Patriots win the game because it's Bill Belichick and Tom Brady facing a division opponent, but Buffalo should do enough to cover the 6.5-point spread.

San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) vs. Los Angeles Rams

Pick: Rams +6.5

Facing postseason elimination, I expect Sean McVay to pull out all the stops against an opponent he's generally had success against as the Rams head coach. San Francisco likely bounces back and wins after last week's letdown vs. Atlanta, but Jared Goff at home is more than capable of covering a near-touchdown spread.

Credit: Brian Blanco/AP
Los Angeles Rams head coach Sean McVay looks on during the second half of a game against the Carolina Panthers in Charlotte, North Carolina on Sunday, September 8, 2019.

Washington Redskins (-2.5) vs. New York Giants

Pick: Giants +2.5

Are we sure the right team in this game is even favored? The Giants aren't great, but as they showed against Miami, if they can do one thing, it's beat up on bad teams. And despite some early success with Dwayne Haskins, I'd say that Washington qualifies as just that.

Indianapolis Colts (-7) vs. Carolina Panthers

Pick: Panthers +7

The Colts continue to get more respect than I think they currently deserve thanks to their early-season success. But nothing I've seen in recent weeks makes me think they should be a touchdown favorite over anyone, including a team with as much offensive firepower as the Panthers.

New York Jets (+3) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Pick: Jets +3

The Steelers need this game as they fight for their playoff hopes, but I'm just not a big believer in an offense that's being engineered by Duck Hodges -- especially on the road. The Jets, meanwhile, are coming off a long week of rest and possess more than enough firepower to upset Pittsburgh at MetLife Stadium.

Tennessee Titans (+3) vs. New Orleans Saints

Pick: Saints -3

I don't want to overreact to one week, but Tennessee showed a lot of shortcomings in its loss to Houston last week. And if those shortcomings reappear, the Saints are as well equipped to capitalize on them as anyone.

Cleveland Browns (+10.5) vs. Baltimore Ravens

Pick: Browns +10.5

I'm as down on the Browns and as high on the Ravens as anyone, but this is simply too many points to pass up. Cleveland may be a bad team, but its roster remains talented -- as Baltimore learned when the Browns beat the Ravens 40-25 earlier this year.

Credit: AP
Cleveland Browns running back Nick Chubb (24) rushes during the second half of an NFL football game against the Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday, Dec. 8, 2019, in Cleveland. (AP Photo/David Richard)

Miami Dolphins (-1) vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Pick: Dolphins -1

With a loss, the Bengals can secure the No. 1 pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, which they will presumably use to select Heisman Trophy winner Joe Burrow. I can't see any reason why they'd let a win vs. the Dolphins delay the inevitable.

Atlanta Falcons (-7.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Pick: Jaguars +7.5

In what world should this Falcons team be a touchdown favorite over anyone? I'll take the Jaguars and the points -- just as I did against the Raiders last week -- and I might even sprinkle in some moneyline action.

Denver Broncos (-7) vs. Detroit Lions

Pick: Lions +7

Similar to my last pick, what have we seen from the Broncos this season that warrants them being made a touchdown favorite? I'll take Detroit -- David Blough and all -- and the points.

Los Angeles Chargers (-7) vs. Oakland Raiders

Pick: Chargers -7

Truthfully, I could use the same logic I used on my last two picks to justify taking the Raiders here, but that's how little I think of this Oakland team. I'll take the Chargers' overall talent to rise to the occasion against the Raiders, whose early-season success was largely built on smoke and mirrors.

Credit: AP
Los Angeles Chargers running back Austin Ekeler plays against the Indianapolis Colts during the second half in an NFL football game Sunday, Sept. 8, 2019, in Carson, Calif. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

Seattle Seahawks (-9.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals

Pick: Seahawks -9.5

The Cardinals are due for a letdown after last weekend's win over the Browns and Seattle still has ground to gain in the NFC playoff race. Add it all together and this has Seahawks blowout written all over it.

Chicago Bears (+6) vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Pick Bears +6

I'm not sure Mitchell Trubisky can keep pace with Pat Mahomes -- in fact, I know he probably can't -- but all he has to do here is cover a 6-point spread. I'll take Chicago to do just that in what feels like a potential backdoor cover spot.

Minnesota Vikings (-5.5) vs. Green Bay Packers

Pick: Vikings -5.5

There's something about this Packers team I'm not totally in love with. I'll take the Vikings to cover by at least a touchdown at home in what I could see being a lopsided game.

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