CLEVELAND — "Win or lose, do it fairly" - Knute Rockne
After posting winning records in three of the previous four weeks, I took an "L," as the kids say, last week, going 5-9-1 in my Week 16 picks. That brings my record for the year to 112-110-4, meaning I can't afford another losing week if I'm going to enter the playoffs with a winning record.
Let's get back on track with my Week 17 picks:
All lines made available via Bovada:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1) vs. Atlanta Falcons
Pick: Buccaneers -1
Even with their depleted wide receiving corps, I still think the Bucs are the better team. I'll take Tampa Bay in what essentially amounts to a pick 'em as Jameis Winston locks up this season's passing (and interceptions) title.
Minnesota Vikings (-1) vs. Chicago Bears
Pick: Vikings -1
With their playoff spot secure and no ground to gain, the Vikings don't have anything to play for. Still, I get the sense that Mike Zimmer will want to build some momentum heading into the postseason coming off of last week's loss to Green Bay.
Cincinnati Bengals (+3) vs. Cleveland Browns
Pick: Browns -3
Despite their struggles in recent weeks, I still (foolishly) believe in the Browns' talent. I'll take Cleveland to cover by a field goal, although I'm admittedly concerned about the likelihood that this will be Andy Dalton's Cincinnati finale.
Detroit Lions (+12.5) vs. Green Bay Packers
Pick: Packers -12.5
The Packers can clinch a first-round bye with a win. I don't love laying the 12.5 points, but this feels like an outcome that should be decided before the two teams head into the locker rooms at halftime.
Kansas City Chiefs (-9) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Pick: Chargers +9
Technically, the Chiefs can clinch a bye, but would also need New England to lose to Miami in order to do so. And assuming they knew that won't be happening by the start of the second half, I expect them to pull enough key players for Phillip Rivers to complete his Chargers career with a backdoor cover.
New England Patriots (-16) vs. Miami Dolphins
Pick: Dolphins +16
This runs counterintuitive to my Chiefs pick, so I guess in some way, it could be considered a hedge? (probably not). Anyways, while I think the Patriots will win and will do so convincingly, I still don't think I've seen enough from them in the past few weeks to make me think they should be favored by 16 against anyone -- even Miami.
Carolina Panthers (+13) vs. New Orleans Saints
Pick: Panthers +13
The Saints till have a shot at a bye -- and even home-field advantage throughout the players -- but the chances of either happening is unlikely. As a result, I wouldn't be surprised to see New Orleans take a conservative approach against a Panthers team that will likely be force-feeding Christian McCaffrey.
Buffalo Bills (-2) vs. New York Jets
Pick: Jets +2
With the Bills already locked into a Wild Card weekend matchup against the Texans, I suspect they'll be resting most of their key players. And as they showed last week against the Steelers, the Jets have more than enough talent to beat up on bad teams.
Baltimore Ravens (+2) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Pick: Ravens +2
Even with nothing to play for, I still think the Ravens' backups have enough talent to upset this Steelers team. I mean, if there's one franchise capable of fostering a Robert Griffin III comeback, isn't it Baltimore?
Denver Broncos (-3.5) vs. Oakland Raiders
Pick: Raiders +3.5
This is a case of me picking with my heart more than with my head. But assuming Pittsburgh loses, isn't the most fust scenario for Oakland to win its 2019 finale and keep its very, very slim playoff hopes alive?
New York Giants (+4.5) vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Pick: Eagles -4.5
The Eagles win and they're not only in -- they're the NFC East champs. I'll take Philadelphia to do just that and even enter Wild Card weekend with a little bit of momentum on its side.
Houston Texans (+3.5) vs. Tennessee Titans
Pick: Texans +3.5
Despite being locked into their Wild Card weekend matchup, it appears the Texans will be playing their starters. And if they do that, I don't see any reason why they can't cover against -- if not outright beat -- the Titans, who have sputtered in the last two weeks.
Dallas Cowboys (-11) vs. Washington Redskins
Pick: Redskins +11
What have you seen from this Cowboys team that would make you comfortable laying 11 points with them against anyone? Especially if they see the Eagles are winning, I wouldn't be surprised to see this team crumble in its 2019 finale.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+4) vs. Indianapolis Colts
Pick: Colts -4
The Colts don't have anything left to play for except their role in strength of schedule tiebreakers. Still, I'll take them to cover against a Jaguars team that hasn't earned a true quality victory since September.
Seattle Seahawks (+3.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers
Pick: Seahawks +3.5
Seattle may not be as good as its record indicates, but it still has an NFC West division title to play for. And while I'm not necessarily convinced they'll get the job done, I do think the Seahawks should play well enough at home in primetime to cover the 3.5-point spread.
