"Hello darkness, my old friend" - "The Sound of Silence" by Simon & Garfunkel
After consecutive winning weeks put my season total on the cusp of .500, a 5-8 record in Week 6 picks brought me crashing back to reality. On the season, my record now stands at 42-46-1. So while I'm still within striking distance of getting over the .500 hump, it's going to take a big week for me to get there sooner rather than later.
Let's try to accomplish just that with my Week 7 picks:
All lines made available via Bovada
Denver Broncos (+3.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Pick: Chiefs -3.5
The Chiefs are cold, while the Broncos have been heating up, but this is purely a matter of me believing in Kansas City in the long haul. It's hard to imagine Patrick Mahomes dropping a third straight game and while that doesn't necessarily mean the Chiefs will cover a 3.5-point spread, I feel better betting on that than I would Joe Flacco with so few points.
Green Bay Packers (-5.5) vs. Oakland Raiders
Pick: Raiders +5.5
The Packers are coming off a short week, while the Raiders will be well-rested coming off their bye. And while Oakland's two-game winning streak might be fool's good, if nothing else, John Gruden's team has been feistier than expected this season.
Washington Redskins (+10) vs. San Francisco 49ers
Pick: 49ers -10
Oddsmakers haven't been shy to give inflated lines this season, which made me surprised this line wasn't closer to 20. The 49ers have won four of its five games by at double-digits this season, and have done so facing better competition than a Redskins team that will likely be turning its offense over to Dwayne Haskins sooner rather than later.
New York Giants (-3) vs. Arizona Cardinals
Pick: Cardinals +3
It feels like the Giants are still being overvalued based on Daniel Jones' debut, which was nearly a month ago. Meanwhile, Kyler Murray has quietly emerged as the front-runner to win Offensive Rookie of the Year while quarterbacking a pretty potent Cardinals offense.
Detroit Lions (+1.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings
Pick: Vikings +1.5
It feels like the Vikings are being undervalued because of Kirk Cousins' early-season struggles. But with Adam Thielen, Stefon Diggs and Dalvin Cook around him, Minnesota always has a chance of being the best team on the field.
Indianapolis Colts (-1) vs. Houston Texans
Pick: Texans +1
Much like my Vikings pick, this is merely a matter of being able to take both the better team and the points.
Atlanta Falcons (+3) vs. Los Angeles Rams
Pick: Rams -3
The Rams have yet to lose three straight games under Sean McVay and it's hard for me to imagine the first time they do so being against a Falcons team that already looks like it's already quit on the season.
Cincinnati Bengals (+3.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Pick: Jaguars -3.5
Even at home and after playing Baltimore close, I'm not sure the Bengals should be getting less than seven points against any team not named the Dolphins or Redskins. I'll take Gardner Minshew II to recapture some of his early-season magic against one of the NFL's worst teams.
Buffalo Bills (-17) vs. Miami Dolphins
Pick: Dolphins +17
Against my better judgment, this is one of my best bets of the week. For as good as the Bills have been this season, they're only averaging 18 points per game. That mean's they'd have to either have an offensive outburst or hold the Dolphins scoreless to cover this week.
While possible, I'll take Miami to cover the 17-point spread.
Tennessee Titans (-2) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Pick: Chargers +2
Like a dummy, I keep backing this Chargers team, so why stop now? It's now or never for Phillip Rivers against a Tennessee team that's been anything but inspiring since its season-opening win vs. the Browns.
Seattle Seahawks (-3) vs. Baltimore Ravens
Pick: Seahawks -3
The Ravens remain inflated by their Week 1 blowout vs. the Dolphins, which also happens to be the last time they covered a game. Meanwhile, the Seahawks look like one of the NFL's most complete teams and can finish off a sweep of the AFC North with a win over Baltimore at home.
Chicago Bears (-3) vs. New Orleans Saints
Pick: Saints +3
Are we sure the right team is favored? The last time we saw the Bears, they were getting beaten down overseas by the Raiders. Meanwhile, the Saints have hardly lost a step since Drew Brees' injury and remain one of the NFL's most talented teams on both sides of the ball.
Dallas Cowboys (-3) vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Pick: Eagles +3
With both of them laying claim to 3-3 records, this feels like a potential turning point for both teams. And if that proves to be the case, I feel better about Philadelphia turning its season around than I do Dallas.
New York Jets (+10) vs. New England Patriots
Pick: Patriots -10
The Jets offered some reason for optimism last week, but that game could have been saying more about Dallas than it was New York. In any event, it's tough to pick against the Patriots in primetime against what still remains one of the worst teams in the NFL.